The agent opportunity is much bigger than we thought.
Today is day 0— not even day 1.
If you see Cursor and Manus, these companies are building the
infrastructure
for agents. The difference is that Cursor is
starting from the local environment,
while Manus is starting from
the cloud environment.
If you look at agent companies, most of them today don't have APIs.
The reason for this is that agents have to live inside the OS to be
useful. But
eventually there are ways around this: open source
some infrastructure
(according to Manus), or go cloud (Cursor
announced today that their next step
will be to go to cloud, and I
think they will release an API after that).
These agentic companies might actually even beat foundational
model
companies like OpenAI. The reason is that product form
changes too quickly:
ChatGPT today cannot do agentic tasks as
well as these native agentic
products which live in the OS. So by
the time ChatGPT distribution gets better,
the product form has
already changed to something else that a ChatGPT UI
cannot
sufficiently support.