Technology allows seeing the future. The difference between good companies
and great ones is that one knows where to double, triple, and quadruple the bet,
whereas a good company only sort of bets everywhere and with hesitation.
The reason the great company can do this is because of its unique vision and strong
conviction on a certain aspect of technology. One example is that MoE, routing experts,
and sharing experts were long discovered, but few companies in the industry realized
its value until Deepseek tripled its bet on it.
The greatest moat for a technology company is the unique vision of the direction of future
technology. It's very hard for other copycat companies to lead without having the right
vision. OpenAI took down Google because it saw the greatness of transformer architecture,
GPT-1, among many other great technology changes.
These changes allowed OpenAI to see a completely distinct vision for the future, while
Google focused on search. Having the right vision for technology is the single greatest
force of innovation for a tech company.
From a business perspective, technology causes changes in a market almost all
the time. Every day, there's some subtle shift in technology that would impact the future of
a business. If one can see these trends consistently leading to a different future, then one
has the chance to capture the opportunity before others who don't understand the
technology. Vision will be the most important differentiator in the future of business.